[Seminar] Impact of present and future temperature conditions in North Atlantic fisheries: an elasticity analysis approach

Speaker

Dr Anna Shchiptsova: Researcher in the Exploratory Modeling of Human-Natural Systems Research Group at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

Contributions

Anna Shchiptsova¹, in collaboration with Ulf Dieckmann^1,2,3, Mikko Heino^1,4,5 and Joshi Jaideep^1,6

¹International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

²Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Japan

³The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai), Hayama, Japan

⁴Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway

⁵University of Bergen, Norway

⁶Geographisches Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland

Abstract

Most marine fish species express life-history changes across temperature gradients; thus, ocean warming will likely impact fish stock composition and fishery productivity. This study investigates the role of life-history determinants in the response of fish stocks to ocean warming. Building on work by the Working Group on Fisheries-induced Evolution of ICES, data on the life-history parameters describing growth, maturation, recruitment, and mortality and on the stock-recruitment relations of 40+ commercially exploited marine fish stocks was compiled to study fisheries sensitivities to ocean warming. For each one of these stocks, a stock-specific bioenergetically driven age-, size-, and stage-specific demographic model with density-dependent recruitment has been calibrated. The detailed causal model of the life cycles enables predictions out of the sample of previously observed temperatures and with no assumption on the independence of the life-history processes. On this basis, elasticity analyses have been performed to assess how climate-induced perturbations in all individual life-history parameters affect a matrix of stock characteristics describing the abundance, biomass, average age, and average length of all fish, spawning fish, maturing fish, naturally dying fish, and caught fish. Furthermore, two diametrical temperature-impact scenarios have been constructed to assess how changing ocean temperatures are expected to affect life-history parameters. Through the systematic elasticity analysis, we advance a classification of the investigated stocks by their response to temperature change and identify stocks particularly vulnerable to ocean warming.

Biosketch

Dr Anna Shchiptsova is a researcher in the Exploratory Modeling of Human-Natural Systems Research Group at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria. Her research focuses on applications of data analysis, empirical statistics and game theory to studying effects of climate change in diverse problems (e.g., finding robust global near-term strategies for abating climate change and modeling the impact of fertilizer industry consolidation on future phosphorus supply for world agriculture). Within COMFORT project, Anna is working with Dr Ulf Dieckmann research team and contributes to the investigation of the role of life-history determinants in the response of North Atlantic fisheries to ocean warming using the elasticity analysis approach.

Prior to joining IIASA, Anna’s main research topic was applications of game-theoretical methods in location theory. She studied applied mathematics and informatics at Petrozavodsk State University, Russia and completed her PhD “Game-Theoretic Models of Facility Location and Their Applications” at the Institute of Applied Mathematical Research, Petrozavodsk at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Zoom Info

• Meeting URL: https://oist.zoom.us/j/94799400298
• Meeting ID: 947 9940 0298