Seminar "Detection, attribution, and projection of tropical cyclones affected by global warming" by Prof. Masaki Satoh
Prof. Masaki Satoh
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
In this talk, current understanding of projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity against anthropogenic warming in climate models will be presented, with introduction of the detectable changes in TC activity identified by observations and the attribution for these changes to anthropogenic climate change. Assessments of these aspects are provided in the two review papers by Knutson et al. (2019, 2020; https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1) and Chapter 11 of the IPCC AR6 WGI (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/). In particular, this talk will focus on the mechanisms of changes in TC activities based on our own studies. We will also discuss challenges for more reliable TC projections.